Petroleum retailers in Nigeria have warned that the pump price of petrol could climb to as high as N2,000 per litre if the ongoing crisis in the Middle East continues to escalate and disrupt global oil markets.
The warning was issued by the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, which raised concerns over the potential impact of geopolitical tensions in the oil rich region on Nigeria’s already fragile fuel market. According to the association, the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States could significantly affect crude oil production, shipping routes and global supply chains, thereby pushing international oil prices higher.
The National President of the association, Billy Gillis-Harry, explained that the Middle East remains one of the world’s most strategic oil producing regions. He noted that any escalation of hostilities in the area could lead to disruptions in the supply of crude oil to the global market, especially if major transportation routes such as the Strait of Hormuz become threatened.
Gillis-Harry said that global crude oil prices often react sharply to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A prolonged conflict could push crude oil prices well above current levels, which would inevitably translate into higher costs for refined petroleum products across the world. For countries like Nigeria that rely heavily on imported refined fuel, such increases would directly affect domestic pump prices.
Nigeria remains one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers, yet the country still imports a significant portion of its refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity. As a result, fluctuations in international oil prices and foreign exchange rates have a strong influence on the cost of fuel in the country.
Industry stakeholders explained that if global crude oil prices continue to rise significantly, the landing cost of imported petrol could increase sharply. Marketers would then be forced to adjust pump prices to reflect the higher import costs. Under such circumstances, petrol prices could approach the N2,000 per litre mark if the crisis persists and market conditions worsen.
Energy analysts warn that such a development would have far reaching consequences for the Nigerian economy. Higher fuel prices could lead to increased transportation costs across the country, which would likely drive up the cost of food and other essential goods. Businesses that rely on fuel powered logistics and electricity generators may also experience higher operating costs, potentially leading to increased prices for consumers.
Many Nigerians are already grappling with rising living costs and inflation, and a significant increase in petrol prices could place additional financial pressure on households. Public transportation fares could increase sharply, while small businesses that depend on petrol or diesel powered generators may struggle to sustain operations.
Retailers have therefore called on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the federal government to accelerate efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity. They emphasized the importance of revamping existing state owned refineries and supporting private refining projects to reduce the country’s dependence on imported fuel.
According to industry players, improving local refining would help cushion the impact of global oil price volatility and geopolitical tensions. A stronger domestic refining sector could provide a more stable supply of petroleum products and help moderate fuel prices for Nigerian consumers.
Experts say that while the projection of petrol selling for N2,000 per litre remains a warning rather than an immediate reality, it highlights the vulnerability of Nigeria’s energy sector to global market disruptions.
As tensions in the Middle East continue to unfold, stakeholders in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector are closely monitoring developments, urging proactive policies that can help safeguard the country’s fuel supply and protect consumers from severe price shocks.
By Olotu Esenuifo.
