Africa’s Fertiliser Shortage Threatens Harvests As Governments Face Urgent Action Now

African governments are facing growing pressure to respond quickly to rising fertiliser supply risks linked to uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, as planting seasons advance and food systems remain vulnerable to global shipping and energy disruptions.

The warning comes at a critical time for the continent, where delayed fertiliser shipments could translate into weaker harvests, rising food prices and deeper economic strain for millions of households already grappling with inflation.

According to recent warnings from development and policy experts Martin Fregene and Chakib Jenane, escalating geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran are disrupting fertiliser trade flows at a particularly dangerous moment for Africa’s agricultural systems.

The concern is significant because the Strait of Hormuz remains a major artery for global fertiliser supply, accounting for roughly:

• One-quarter of global ammonia trade
• More than one-third of seaborne urea shipments

Even without a full supply shutdown, perceived disruption can drive up prices, delay deliveries and intensify food inflation across import-dependent markets.

For Africa, where fertiliser security is directly tied to food security, the risks are immediate.

Smallholder Farmers Face the Greatest Pressure

Sub-Saharan Africa imports roughly 80% of its fertiliser, often paying significantly higher prices than other global markets due to freight costs, financing barriers and logistical inefficiencies.

This leaves smallholder farmers who produce nearly 70% of the region’s food supply especially exposed.

For many farmers, whether maize growers in northern Nigeria, rice producers in Senegal or cooperatives in Malawi, fertiliser shortages can quickly mean:

• Late planting
• Reduced fertiliser application
• Crop switching
• Lower yields

The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that a 10% reduction in fertiliser availability could reduce maize, rice and wheat output across sub-Saharan Africa by as much as 25%, while pushing food inflation up by as much as 8%.

Institutions Move Toward Coordinated Response

African institutions are already beginning to respond.

The African Union Commission, African Development Bank, ECA and UNDP are working on coordinated measures aimed at stabilising fertiliser, fuel and food systems as Middle East tensions raise broader supply chain risks.

Lessons From Previous Crises

Africa has already faced a similar fertiliser shock.

In 2022, following supply disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, the African Development Bank launched a $1.5 billion African Emergency Food Production Facility.

That programme reached nearly 16 million smallholder farmers across 35 countries, delivered 3.5 million metric tonnes of fertiliser, and helped generate 46 million tonnes of food valued at around $19 billion.

A second phase focused on long-term food sovereignty is now underway.

Experts say the current threat requires not only immediate crisis management, but also deeper structural reforms.

The long-term solution goes beyond importing more fertiliser and includes:

• Regional procurement systems
• Commercial buffer stocks
• Domestic fertiliser blending and manufacturing
• Improved rail and port logistics
• Affordable farmer finance
• Soil-specific nutrient strategies

The African Fertiliser and Soil Health Initiative, adopted at the 2024 AU Summit, already provides a broader roadmap aimed at restoring degraded soils and doubling cereal yields over the next decade.

What Governments Need to Do Now

To avoid turning supply disruption into a harvest crisis, governments are being urged to act before shortages intensify.

Key priorities include:

• Monitoring fertiliser shipping routes and price movements
• Pooling procurement across regional blocs
• Building strategic reserves
• Accelerating local production in countries such as Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia
• Supporting smallholders through digital vouchers, seasonal credit and transparent distribution systems

Rather than broad subsidies that strain public finances, targeted interventions may offer more sustainable protection.

The emerging consensus is clear: fertiliser security must now be treated as a core pillar of Africa’s food security and climate resilience strategy.

If governments move quickly, the current global supply shock could become more than a crisis response it could accelerate a broader push toward African food sovereignty.

For millions of farmers, the stakes are deeply practical: securing fertiliser on time may determine not just this season’s harvest, but household stability, food affordability and economic resilience across the continent.
TNAM
Edited By Egwu Patience Nnennaya